囚徒困境,微观博弈到宏观道德

尝试从一个角度,推断功利主义的道德是如何从微观博弈形成为宏观的社会规范的。

也许根源来自于熵增的宇宙规律,即使是作为低熵生物也无法抗拒的原则是-这个世界,“破坏”总比“构建”要容易。毁掉一片麦田比辛苦耕种一年要容易;炸毁一幢房子比建造一幢房子容易;杀死一个人比养育一个人到能为社会贡献的年纪容易;让一个改进城市的议案通不过比通过容易。这种特质让人与人之间的关系非常容易形成一种囚徒困境。

人与人之间的关系可以分类为“合作”与“对抗”,“构建”与“破坏”,“善意”与“恶意”,“生产”与“掠夺”等等。不幸的是,由以上的规律支配,几乎总是会恶意的一方获利多于善意的一方,而双方都进行的破坏造成的损害大于双方合作产生的进步。用简单的数字表示,可能的例子是:双方合作,则各获得+1利益;一方合作一方对抗,则对抗方获得+2利益,合作方获得-3利益;双方都对抗,则双方都获得-2利益。在不能预知对方的选择这种设定下,直白的选择很明显,都会选择对抗:假设对方会合作时,对抗获得+2,合作只获得+1;假设对方会对抗时,对抗获得-2,合作则获得-3.

但按照如此规则运转的社会,将永远不会获得由双方合作带来的总进步:双方合作以外的选项,总收益都是负数。长期这样下去的话,整个社会群体将会不可挽回地滑落。

道德可以作为纠正这种博弈的一种外部手段:它可能通过强制对选择破坏的一方进行更多的惩罚,也可能通过打开信息的黑箱让博弈双方都拥有一定程度的互信。这种机制使得人类社会得以存续下去,没有落入互相争斗的循环。

不幸的是,这种机制在更加宏观的水平上似乎起作用的周期十分漫长。我们已经看到,在文明之间,社会之间的冲突中,有一些社会在掠夺中得利数百年;一些社会依然以个人主义优先,通过欺骗和抢劫得到的财富得到追捧,只要他们有办法“洗白”;偷窃和抢劫被纵容,只为了各种冠冕堂皇的“自由”之类的理由。我无法判断这种现状会持续多久,但我认为按照社会发展的规律,这样的社会终将会结束。

On A Brief History of Intelligence

Intro

I totally echo with the point that life is basically about lowering entropy. A bit surprised at how widely conceived this idea is, I googled it and found one of the earliest writings about it was from Erwin Schrödinger the quantum physicist, who first used the word “negentropy” or negative entropy in his 1944 popular science book what is life to describe the dynamics of life.

However, maybe because there’s a bit of Chauvinism in me, I don’t agree that there’s not a type of intelligence more superior than others. It could be true in the context of surviving in the biosphere, as clearly all current life forms have survived billions of years through evolution; however, both in terms of the essential meaning of life, as well as potential of spreading life across the universe, I think one must measure level of intelligence in terms of information entropy. As of today, only humans have shown the ability to summarize the physical rule of the universe and proving that they apply to far beyond where we live. The author’s examples of octopus’ multitasking, birds’ visual processing, fishes fast reflexes help them win the contest of evolution, but are nothing compared to humans’ use of heat energy, computers, relativity and quantum physics, and more importantly, knowing that there are a set of rules that will be always true, in the air we breathe, in the center of a nuclear bomb, or in the universe lightyears away.

Breakthrough #1

Well written and I learned a lot.

What I didn’t know before and find interesting are adaptation and learning.

It’s interesting to learn that adaptation happens at single neuron level without the need of brain or centralized processing of distributed information. The author might mention it in later sections, this makes me think of the diminishing/ exploding gradient topic in neural net algorithms. The solutions I know of are all based on structure of the network rather than how a single neuron works (although, in a way, one could define a set of nodes and their linkage between them as one neuron).

Learning – here defined as the most basic form, the “strength” of the connections between neurons – also happens at a lot lower level than I considered before. This, to me, is more easily compared with neural network as the “weight” value “learned” by the network.

Breakthrough #2

One thing I’m interested in but not explained in depth: why would the reinforced learning and measurement of time only capable by vertebrates? These complex functions sounds unlikely to be lying in the spines, but would come from the complexity of the brains. What part/mechanism of the brain makes this possible?

Does current computer vision/ convolutional neural nets work in the same way as human vision? I think the pattern/ feature recognition makes sense, however, in the human 3d object example, I believe humans – and probably vertebrates in general – are able to ‘reconstruct’ or ‘imagine’ objects in a 3 dimensional world even when it’s just a 2D picture (or essentially the imaging in our retina would be 2D anyway). There must be certain structure of the brain that naturally interpret things with volume/ depth/ distance. Would computer vision today do that? I suspect probably not otherwise there won’t be a discussion of whether radars are needed to determine distance in self driving cars. Using wording from breakthrough #3, these systems likely still lacks ‘world model’ understanding the observations are projections of a 3D world, those objects, and ‘self’ are 3D objects moving in the world with a certain range of rules.

Breakthrough #3

It is amazing learning about the linkage between the mechanism of neocortical column and neural net models of recognition-generation structure. Before reading this section I was thinking of this kind of model more as a ‘dimensionality reduction’ technique through math tricks. This structure really explains how this type of unsupervised model can work and evolve. The fact that the neocortical columns all have same structure but will have different functions also seem to explain why these types of neural net models can succeed in many seemingly different tasks from computer vision to voice recognition to large language model, as well as explains why these models benefit so much from just scaling.

Breakthrough #4

Socializing is a key part of this breakthrough. I think this section gives a very nice perspective that explains the differences between animals that exhibit ‘social’ behaviors, that is by whether individuals would mentalize what other individuals would do, or to ‘put myself in your shoes’. Ants, bees, herds of fish are able to form large colonies and can be capable of working together in complicated tasks. However, with their simple brains and what we know about their brains so far, I would tend to think these behaviors are more ‘mechanial’ or ‘reflective’ that is selected through evolution. One ant would just follow the smell or hormone stimulations that leads to it moving food to its home, rather than being able to think ‘the ant queen would reward me this if I complete this task, and having food in home will be good to small ants that are still growing’.

Breakthrough #5

Although I did not think language is a key component of a higher level of intelligence, I do have some doubts in the current large language models and the book has one angle to explain it. The large language models were directly trained on and applied to language which itself is already a product of high intelligence, rather than being built on the foundation of language – representation of the world, represenation of the rules of the world, representations of thoughts and thoughts of others. It’s both the ‘world model’ problem as well as the foundation of language. This way, no matter how good they are at simulating the appearance of language, I always feel there’s something missing.

Breakthrough #6

I have thought about ways that humans may be able to persist to a time period much longer than the biosphere (which I might write about in other posts). However the author in this section raises a more viable path to extend the existence of intelligence – by man made AI. This indeed seems like a much more likely path given current technologies. Actually I believe, even with the technology today, human should be able to create robot factories that can reproduce themselves, with automated solar or nuclear energy, mining, robot building, and will be able to sustain the system longer than human history if humans ourselves do not destroy them. All the components should be readily available today, it just needs putting the system together, and of course, a reason for us humans to do it. I have little doubt that if humans are facing some type of bio crisis and will all have to work together to find a way out for mankind, we should be able to build this system in a few years, far more easily than sending a colony to Mars and sustain there. However as far as I know, the current AI progress lacks the “learning” ability, therefore not able to explore deeper physics rules, not able to send themselves into the universe to avoid the end of the earth, or ultimately, not able to further reduce the information entropy of itself and the world around it. If that becomes the end of human kind, I would be disappointed as it’s not much more than extinction.

死亡 death

从很小的时候我就非常害怕死亡。小学的时候就经常因为想到死亡的事在夜里跑到父母的房间里去寻求安慰。大概初中以来开始关于这个话题想得更多,有时就在上课时望着窗外,心里想着自己死后的久远的时间。有时在深夜独自睡不着,为将会失去所有的过去心悸到发抖。我想在这里写下关于死亡的一切思考。

死亡的恐惧

虽然不太符合我的人设,但我还是打算从感性的角度而不是理性的角度开始说起,毕竟这是我开始考虑这个问题的开端。

我对死亡的恐惧,第一层是害怕自己思维的停止。我非常喜欢思考,把自己的记忆和逻辑仔细重复的梳理,有沉浸于回忆里的感动也有思辨的快感。所以我非常害怕总有一天我将必须停止这些思考。我无法想象有一天‘我’的本质不复存在,我曾见到听到闻到触摸到的东西将不再有证据,我将世界联系起来的逻辑归于混沌。曾经杂志上看到王晋康的科幻小说《决战美杜莎》,抛除他设想的实现方法,我觉得我甚至可以接受这样一种形式的永生:我可以不再拥有物理形体,不再有对外界的感知和影响的能力,只保留着我自己的记忆和思考。我可能不愿意保持这个状态数亿年,但是我想我会很高兴这样至少延长数百年,只靠翻找自己的回忆和思考就足够支持我很漫长的时光。

第二层是害怕失去和我有关系的人。如果我死了,我将不能看到我的家人,我的爱人,将来会怎样的生活;我将不能看到我的学校,我的家乡,将来会不会发展的更好;我将不能看到世界上互相争斗的人,能不能有一天回归和平。我不想停止这些观察,以及和前一层一样,我不想有一天停止对这些事物的总结和比较,看看他们和我的逻辑是不是一样?相对来讲,我不是很在意这些人在我死后会不会想起我,或是我给他们留下了什么。

最后一层,我想是死亡会阻止我成为,或是观察到,作为‘人’的最终意义-对宇宙的理解。我想要知道,宇宙的规律是不是能够被理解的?有没有理论将解释宏观到微观的一切关系?宇宙的起源是什么,又将如何终结?时间到底是什么?我想要理解世界,我想要‘人’理解这个世界,但是死亡的存在将阻止这一切。甚至都不只是我个体的死亡-以目前人类这个样子,最大的可能是远远在地球不适宜生存以前,人类和文明就已经结束了。我也将无法得知,到底有没有某种有思维的存在,能够理解这个宇宙了。

死亡是什么

死亡是什么,从古至今应该有许多理论讨论过,我直到近年才相对系统的了解到SEP-death。但是在这以前我已经有过很多的想法,对我来说简单的定义便是‘活着的意义’的相反词。但是如同活着的意义的难以定义一样,我至今也没有一种确信的,符合所有我的观察和逻辑的-同时还能够稍微的感情上接受的-一种定义。

我最‘悲观’的一种定义,是人的活着和死亡和其他生物,甚至任何其他物质一样,是‘机械的’或者说很纯粹的唯物的。当然我愿意相信由于量子力学的相关结论,宇宙并不是确定性的,但是我这里是想形容为,人的出现,生存,死亡,都是由最基本的粒子和物理规律产生的一种现象而已。这些粒子结合,相互作用,又由某种熵增/因果律/时间的单向性不可避免的重新组合。它们的某种组合和作用关系让我认为我有了能称为思维的某种体验,而它们的另一种作用关系,让我不再维持生命活动,不再有某种电信号让我思考,但也仅此而已了。我自己,人类,生命,星球,任何有规律或是无规律的物质组成,都在本质上没有任何区别,只是这个宇宙产生的定律中的一种随机波动而已。我认为这种定义很有可能最接近‘真实’,但也从此否定了人活着的意义。人只是随机的产生,由某种定律驱使着自以为按照自己的意志生存,也由同样的定律消失。我从‘合理性’的感情角度,并不能完全接受这样的定义。

而最“乐观”的一种定义则是另一种“唯心”的极端。我想它可以形容为一种终极的强人择原理:如果这个宇宙恰好到能让人类出现并观察它,也许我作为观察者的宇宙也恰好到让我能够持续观察它。也许我歪曲一位知乎答主的一种观点(他本意是说对死亡的恐惧一定程度上是一种社会意识建构的产物,而不是一种自然的真理)毕竟,我们只是看到其他人死亡,看到其他人的恐惧,而因此推断自己会死,从而恐惧而已。没有证据证明我一定会死!倘若把这种观点包装成一种信仰,至少比世界上目前流行的信仰可信度说不定还更高一些。但同理,与我对大多信仰的态度一样,我很难对一种不可证伪的结论进行无条件的相信,从而我认为这一种定义也有缺陷。

就如我对大多数话题的看法一样,我还是总喜欢一种折中的态度。也许死亡是两者之间的一种状态:我既存在于这个世界的物理规则之中,又有我独立的观察,思考,行动的能力;我的观察赋予了这个宇宙意义,但也会和无数宇宙一样最终归于湮灭。但我所留下的存在的痕迹,思考的方式,也许会通过人,或是其他的什么,留给与我的宇宙重叠的下一个宇宙,这便是我想留下这些文字的意义吧。

死亡之后

在我会终将死亡的可能性里,难免要考虑死之后的事情。既然不论如何解释,死亡之后都不再能对这个世界产生影响,说起来我是很少以一种“安排后事”的角度来想死亡之后的事情的。我没有一点想要捐献给谁或是继承给谁财产之类的想法-不是“想要不给”而是“没想过给”的感觉。我最在意的大概还是这个世界会怎样想起我,怎样留下我思考的方式吧。

I have been extremely afraid of death since I was very little. As a boy I would cry at night and run to my parents’ room at the fear of death. In middle school I started thinking more deeply about the issue and would stare at the sky thinking about what happens to the universe after I die. I would often wake at night, heart pounding and body shaking when thinking about losing everything I have experienced. What is death? I would like to start with sharing on this topic.

My fear of death

I would like to start with emotional perspective for my perception of death.

The first layer is the fear of stopping thinking. I think the nature of human is observing, thinking, and practice, and I particularly enjoy the thinking. I would often reflect on my memory, thinking about what I have seen and replaying them, and connecting the things and theories behind them. I am afraid death would stop me from doing that. I sometimes feel if I had the choice, I would give up anything in this material world in exchange for a chance to continue to exist in a ‘spiritual’ form that is able to preserve my memory and think about it, even not permanently but only for a few hundred years I would not be bored. Even better if I could continue to observe this world. However death will make this impossible, thus my first layer of fear comes from this feeling of helplessness.

The second layer comes from my care for the people I care about. I am deeply interested in seeing how people continue to live: how my friends and family will live their lives; what my hometown and country will become; whether the world will be in peace and people’s work get what they deserve. I would love to see whether there is a logic way to explain how people live, or maybe a simple word is just history. I don’t care about (materially) what I leave to them just as I am nothing in history, but I get depressed at the idea that I won’t be able to observe history.

The final layer for my fear of death is it stops me from fulfilling the meaning of humans, or even confirming the meaning of humans. Is our understanding of the universe correct? What is the origin and what will be the end of the universe? Is there a rule of the universe and is it even understandable? What is time? It is my desire to observe and understand this, I want “human”- likely not even in current form- to understand it, but my death, as well as death for all humans, will stop this and leave the universe to a state of chaos. It’s my desire of ‘order’, it’s my desire of simplicity, it’s my desire of minimizing the entropy.

What is death?

About the definition of death there has been extensive discussions from philosophers. I only recently learned about Stanford Encyclopedia of Philosophy and think it has a very systematic summary. But I have had a lot of theories before I read about it. I simply define death as the opposite to living. However, as the meaning of life is hard to define, this is not well defined either, and I have been struggling to find a theory that is logical, and supported by observation of the world, as well as can be accepted by my mind.

My own most pessimistic definition of death, (or of life of human), is that the process is no difference from other living or even non living things. The process is purely mechanical and material. It doesn’t mean it has to be deterministic due to all sources of randomness such as from quantum mechanics. It just means that humans are still purely dominated by the rules of physics, where particles just interact with each other following the most basic laws of the universe. By chance they form into molecules of life and form my body, as well as the electric signals making me think that I am able to think. And one day, still simply following the laws of physics, these particles may disassemble, may stop producing the electric signals, and I no longer ‘think’ of anything. Sand, human, suns, everything in this universe that are in order or in chaos, they’re all the same, generated from random fluctuations of the evolution of these most basic particles. I would suppose this is most likely the truth of life and death, but is hard to accept it from my heart as it denies all meanings of life.

The most optimistic theory I have on the other hand, is what I call the ultimate (generalized) anthropic principle. If the universe we live in is like this just because we as observers could observe it, why not generalize that to just myself: if there are chances I don’t die, then the universe I live in must not let me die as I will be the only observer of my own universe. Actually, nobody has ever seen themselves die. There is no actual proof that I myself must die in the end. This theory might even be more convincing than the popular religions. However, similar to all thee religions, this theory as a non falsifiable one, does not prove itself right.